Abstract
This paper examines the possible Brexit scenarios and their impacts on the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) of the European Union (EU) with particular focus on Lithuania. The paper outlines the scientific discourse on the imminent modifications of the CAP after the Brexit along with changes in the EU budget. The paper was prepared during the beginning of Brexit negotiations, with withdrawal terms not being publicly disclosed. Thus, the most likely assumptions have been accepted in order to model the scenarios. The possible effects of Brexit on the agriculture of the small EU Member States are discussed taking the case of Lithuania as an example. The empirical analysis showed that, in the case of three different Brexit-induced CAP modifications, Lithuanian agricultural sector may lose 1% to 20% of financial support under the CAP direct payment mechanism. The corresponding loss under these scenarios is quantified for agricultural sectors of all the EU Member States.
DOI: 10.14254/2071-789X.2019/12-2/20
Volkov, A.; Baležentis, T.; Morkūnas, M.; Streimikiene, D. 2019. Brexit and EU Common Agricultural Policy: The possible consequences for Lithuania. Economics and Sociology, Vol. 12, No 2, p. 328–344; ISSN 2071-789X; DOI: 10.14254/2071-789X.2019/12-2/20; [EconLit (2010); EBSCOhost Online research databases (2011): Business Source Complete (2011), SocINDEX (2011); IndexCopernicus (2011), ICV 2014: 100; Ulrich's Periodicals Directory (2012); GESIS: Knowledge Base Social Sciences Eastern Europe (2012); SCOPUS (2012, back-cited from 2008); Cabell's Directory (2012); ProQuest (2012); SCIENCE INDEX (2013); Norwegian Social Science Data Services (NSD) (2013); BazEkon (2013); CAB Abstracts - ISI Thomson Reuters (2013); MS&HE (Poland), List "B", rating score 15 pts. (2015); ERIH PLUS (2014); WorldCat (2014); DOAJ (2015); BazHum (2015); Emerging Sources Citation Index (ESCI) - Thomson Reuters (2015); Web of Science - Thomson Reuters (2015); JUFO, Level 1 (2013); BFI list, Level 1 (2017); Academic Journal Guide, CABS (2018)].